Geography and Regional Planning

Geography and Regional Planning

The impact of greenhouse gas emissions on Iran's agricultural production: The Nordhaus model approach

Authors
Farshid Soleimaninejad 1
Somayeh Amirteimouri 2
Seyed Abdolmaajid Jalaee 3
Mohammad Reza Zare 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
3 Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
10.22034/jgeoq.2025.555849.4357
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important environmental issues of the current century, which has widespread impacts on natural resources, the environment, and the agricultural sector. Iran is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The country has an arid and semi-arid climate, which makes its agricultural sector vulnerable to climate change and drought. Therefore, in this study, the impact of climate change on Iran's agricultural sector has been investigated using the Nordhaus dynamic model. Using this model, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and its effects on Iran's economy and agricultural production have been simulated under four scenarios. The results showed that in the absence of further control and with the current trend of greenhouse gas emissions, the average temperature of the Earth will increase by 1°C in 2031 compared to 2021. This temperature increase will lead to a 12% decrease in agricultural production in Iran. Assuming 10, 25, and 35 percent control of greenhouse gas emissions, the average temperature of the Earth will increase by 0.8, 0.5, and 0.3 degrees Celsius in 2031 compared to 2021, respectively, which will lead to an 8, 5, and 1 percent decrease in agricultural production in Iran, respectively.
Keywords
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Climate Change
Agricultural Production
Drought
Nordhaus Model
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