A Study of the Uncertainty of Detection Methods for the Climatic Changes in temperature Variables (case study in Karkheh)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Dept. of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

Abstract

Abstract
     Uncertainties discussed in our country in recent years in the study of climate change, particularly temperature and precipitation are considered. In this study, the uncertainty of climate models and hydrological parameters annual temperature maximum temperature and minimum temperature in the station area has been Karkhe.  In this regard, the 41-year period (1970 -2010), 11 stations Karkhe basin is studied. In this study the detection of climate change, annual variations in temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature stations using climate models Parametric (Mann-Kendall (MK), Kendal Mann rank, test San (Q), regression (LR), Spearman rank correlation coefficient (SRC), testing Pre-whitening, standard deviation analysis (StD), test (t test) and model TFPW. Parametric modeling results show that the mean annual temperature change of station (9 stations) was 82 percent. This significant increase in the average temperature in most parts of the basin there. Stations in the south (downstream) basin at a rate greater than the other trend are Karkhe. T model results in a significant increase in the percentage of stations in Ahwaz, Kermanshah, Hamidieh and Hamadan, Dezful show and at 5% for the four bridges is positive. Contrary to the trend at a maximum average temperature in the northern parts of the southern part of the basin is more extensive. So that the model used, the northern and central stations Hamadan, four bridges, canals and Khorramabad Varynh significant positive trend at different levels are high. The minimum temperature varies significantly increased severe Karkhe station area Ahvaz Parametric models (I Kendal, age, Spearman linear regression) at a percentage of 10% is PW. Parametric and nonparametric models to detect significant trends stations have the same share. A total of 8 stations Karkhe (73%), a positive trend has been recorded minimum temperature climate models. In 37 percent of the basin's 4 stations from eleven stations Parametric test procedure was not seen. . This increase and decrease in some variable rainfall, in some stations are different models used. Overall performance in the test not matches the temperature variables that indicate the uncertainty in the model's output. 

Keywords

References

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Geography (Regional Planning)
Volume 6, Issue 22
June 2017
Pages 7-21

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