نوع مقاله : مقاله های برگرفته از رساله و پایان نامه
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران
2 استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران
3 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Land in cities, as an element of the complex system of cities, is considered a fundamental factor in the sustainability of cities, for this purpose it is necessary to implement the right policies and its proper management by relevant institutions. To this end, the present study aims to explain land policies in Iranian cities in the time horizon of 1404, trying to determine the best model for land policy and determine its driving force. For this purpose, after library studies, 8 key factors were evaluated with 24 assumptions evaluated by 30 experts in the field of urban land policies, which were identified as snowball methods, and then in the software environment of the Wizard scenario. Be identified in Iran. The results showed that 8 key factors of land cultivation in Iranian cities had 4 strong scenarios, 74 weak scenarios and 15 possible scenarios. Possible scenarios with 120 modes (optimal, static and undesirable) had a coefficient of 17% for the optimal state, 30% for the static state and 51% for the critical state (which also had the highest frequency). According to estimates, the critical state of policymaking was more likely than other situations on the 1404 horizon.
کلیدواژهها [English]