تحلیل تغییرات کاربری اراضی حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه با استفاده از مدل LCM تا افق 2040

نوع مقاله : مقاله های برگرفته از رساله و پایان نامه

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی دانشکده‌های علوم انسانی و علوم و فناوری‌های بین‌ رشته‌ای، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

دریاچه ارومیه بزرگ‌ترین دریاچه داخلی کشور است که در سال‌های اخیر تراز سطح آب آن به میزان چشم‌گیری کاهش‌یافته است. یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل انسانی منجر به‌این کاهش تراز، تغییرات کاربری اراضی مطرح‌شده است. لذا تحلیل تغییرات مزبور می‌تواند برای تحقیقات مربوطه مفید باشد. هدف از این تحقیق، پایش تغییرات کاربری اراضی درگذشته و پیش‌بینی تغییرات آن در آینده با استفاده از مدل‌ساز تغییر زمین ((LCM در حوزه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه است. در این تحقیق، تصاویر ماهواره Landsat سنجنده های TM و ETM تجزیه‌وتحلیل شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از جمع‌بندی نرخ تغییرات در کل حوزه نشان داد در20 سال آینده مساحت ساخت‌وسازهای انسانی از 57 هزار هکتار به 117 هزار هکتار رسیده است. در رابطه با کاربری جنگل‌های بلوط تقریباً ثباتی مشاهده می‌گردد که مساحت این جنگل‌ها از 532 هزار هکتار به 510 هزار هکتار می‌رسد که نرخ تغییرات آن کمتر از 2% است و این روند نسبت به دوره‌ای پیشین روند کاهشی در این حوزه خواهد داشت. در کل بر اساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده انتظار می‌رود 50 % مساحت در این حوزه تخریب گردد. مراتع از 52% مساحت به 26% مساحت خود رسیده و مساحت زیادی از حوزه به‌صورت لم‌یزرع و با پوشش کم دیده شود. لذا پوشش کم‌توان یا خاک از 10% مساحت کل حوزه به 37% رسیده و غالب حوزه ارومیه به حالت بیابانی یا بدون پوشش تبدیل می‌گردد. نهایتاً کشاورزی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین کاربری مصرف آب در مکان‌های اولیه خود که در سال 2000 وجود داشته با تنها 2% ادامه می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Land Use Change analysis of the Lake Urmia Basin Using LCM model until 2040

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadreza Shahbazbegian 1
  • majedeh hatami 2
1 Member of the Faculty of Humanities and Interdisciplinary Sciences and Technologies Faculties, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Master's student in land development planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Urmia Lake is the most extensive Iran, whose water level has decreased significantly in recent years. This study aims to analyze changes in land use in the past and predict its changes in the future using land change modelling (LCM). In this study, Landsat images of TM and ETM sensors (in 2000, 2010 and 2020) related to May and June were analyzed with the shortest time interval. Images of all three time periods were classified into six categories: agriculture, forest, rangeland, waterbody, human-made areas, and low-lying cover, including soil and rock. The development trend of the next 20 years will be seen in medium-sized cities such as Saqqez.Regarding the use of oak forests, there is almost stability that the area of these forests increases from 532 thousand hectares to 510 thousand hectares, the rate of change of which is less than 2%, and this trend will decrease compared to previous periods in this area. In total, we expect 50% of the area to be destroyed in this area. Rangelands have increased from 52% of their area to 26% of their area and a large area of the area can be seen quickly and with low coverage. Therefore, low power cover or soil from 10% of the total area of the basin to 37% and most of the Urmia basin becomes desert or uncovered. Agriculture continues in its early 2000s with only 2% as these are the only areas that support this use with ecological potential.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land use
  • LCM
  • Lake Urmia Iran
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